A data-based regional scale autoregressive rainfall-runoff model: a study from the Odra River     

Tomasz Niedzielski 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(6):649-664

This paper aims to compare the performances of multivariate autoregressive (MAR) techniques and univariate autoregressive (AR) methods applied to regional scale rainfall-runoff modelling. We focus on the case study from the upper and middle reaches of the Odra River with its main tributaries in SW Poland. The rivers drain both the mountains (the Sudetes) and the lowland (Nizina Śląska). The region is exposed to extreme hydrologic and meteorological events, especially rain-induced and snow-melt floods. For the analysis, four hydrologic and meteorological variables are chosen, i.e., discharge (17 locations), precipitation (7 locations), thickness of snow cover (7 locations) and groundwater level (1 location). The time period is November 1971–December 1981 and the temporal resolution of the time series is of 1 day. Both MAR and AR models of the same orders are fitted to various subsets of the data and subsequently forecasts of discharge are derived. In order to evaluate the predictions the stepwise procedure is applied to make the validation independent of the specific sample path of the stochastic process. It is shown that the model forecasts peak discharges even 2–4 days in advance in the case of both rain-induced and snow-melt peak flows. Furthermore, the accuracy of discharge predictions increases if one analyses the combined data on discharge, precipitation, snow cover, and groundwater level instead of the pure discharge multivariate time series. MAR-based discharge forecasts based on multivariate data on discharges are more accurate than AR-based univariate predictions for a year with a flood, however, this relation is reverse in the case of the free-of-flooding year. In contrast, independently of the occurrence of floods within a year, MAR-based discharge forecasts based on discharges, precipitation, snow cover, and groundwater level are more precise than AR-based predictions.  相似文献   

Creep of saturated materials as a chemically enhanced rate‐dependent damage process     

Liang Bo Hu  Tomasz Hueckel 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2007,31(14):1537-1565

Material behaviour that exhibits characteristics of creep induced by a spontaneous mineral dissolution enhanced by material damage is studied. It is believed that the characteristic rates of the chemical processes involved determine the time‐rate dependence of the resulting strain. A basic model of a combined chemo‐plastic softening and chemically enhanced deviatoric strain hardening for saturated geomaterials is presented. Chemical softening is postulated to occur as a consequence of the net mass removal resulting from dissolution and precipitation of specific minerals occurring at the damage‐generated inter‐phase interfaces. Closed and open systems are discussed. In the former case, deformation at constant stress results entirely from a local compensation mechanism between the chemical softening and strain hardening. The classical three stages of creep are interpreted in terms of mechanisms of dissolution and precipitation, as well as the variation in the reaction surface areas involved in the mass exchange. In an open system, the above local mechanism is enhanced by the removal of mass via diffusion of species affecting the mass balance. Such a system is addressed via a boundary value problem as shown in an example. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the optimal siting of cubic kilometre scale neutrino telescope infrastructure on the deep-sea floor     

Tomasz Niedzielski  Imants G. Priede  Anne Holford 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2009,30(4):217-227

The aim of this paper is to propose an approach for optimal siting of the KM3NeT neutrino telescope on the sea floor. The method is based on Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analyses and cost assessment. GIS techniques initially aim to derive depth and slope characteristics of the sea floor, and estimate the distance from shore. Subsequently, GIS methods are used to pre-select sites meeting the KM3NeT infrastructure criteria. Finally, the candidate locations are evaluated in terms of cost estimation. A convex combination of instantaneous cost functions (ICFs) is applied and different weighting factors are allowed to account for dissimilar importance of the considered variables. The ICFs are indexed by a parameter β to assign different cost characteristics to different variables. The overall assessment is based on the comparison of costs computed for the candidate sites assuming many configurations of weights and β values. Our exercise uses a simulated numerical bathymetry to avoid a site-specific evaluation at the initial stage of the KM3NeT project. Hence, no recommendations as to the real locations of the neutrino telescope in the Mediterranean Sea are addressed. Our approach is found to serve well in the process of comparing costs between different candidate sites.  相似文献   

Automated classification of interplanetary dust particles: Johnson Space Center Cosmic Dust Catalog Volume 15     

Jeremie LASUE  Tomasz STEPINSKI  Samuel W. BELL 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2010,45(5):783-797

Abstract– The “Cosmic Dust Catalog,” published by the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), describes thousands of interplanetary dust particles subjected to preliminary analysis and with labels indicating their origin. However, only about 80% of the particles are assigned unambiguous labels, the labels of the remaining 20% being uncertain. In addition, the Stardust mission results opened up the possibility that some particles classified as terrestrial contaminants are instead of cosmic (cometary) origin. In this article, we present a methodology for automatic classification of particles on the basis of similarity of their X‐ray energy dispersive spectrometry spectra. The method is applied to the 467 particles constituting Volume 15 of the catalog. A first part of the analysis is to digitize the spectra from their scanned images. The digitized spectra are subjected to agglomerative clustering, which reveals 16 distinct clusters or compositional types of particles. The Sammon’s map is used to visualize the relationship between different clusters; 6 clusters corresponding to cosmic particles and 10 clusters corresponding to terrestrial contaminants are clearly separated on the map indicating overall differences between diverse spectra of cosmic and terrestrial particles. By reconciling labels with the clustering structures, we propose the relabeling of 155 particles including the relabeling of 31 terrestrial contaminants into cosmic particles. The proposed relabeling needs to be confirmed by in‐depth study of these particles. The paucity of particles with firmly determined cometary or asteroidal origin makes it difficult to establish whether the spectra based autoclassification can be utilized to discriminate between cometary and asteroidal particles. The methodology presented here can be used to classify all particles published in the catalog, as well as different samples for which comparable spectra are available.  相似文献   

Web Service for extracting stream networks from DEM data     

Wei Luo  Xiaoyan Li  Ian Molloy  Liping Di  Tomasz Stepinski 《GeoJournal》2014,79(2):183-193

This paper describes the implementation of a morphology based algorithm for extracting stream networks from data as a Web Service within the framework of GeoBrain, an open, interoperable, distributed, standard-compliant, multi-tier web-based geospatial information services and knowledge building system. Unlike standard out-of-the-box GIS software, which uses the flow direction based algorithm and often produces streams that are spatially uniform, streams extracted with this Web Service correctly reflect spatial variability in dissection patterns. In addition, this Web Service is free and can be accessed from anywhere provided that there is an Internet connection and a standard Web browser.  相似文献   

A near‐annual palaeohydrological study based on testate amoebae from a sub‐alpine mire: surface wetness and the role of climate during the instrumental period     

Mariusz Lamentowicz  Willem Van Der Knaap  Łukasz Lamentowicz  Jacqueline F. N. Van Leeuwen  Edward A. D. Mitchell  Tomasz Goslar  Christian Kamenik 《第四纪科学杂志》2010,25(2):190-202

We present the first testate amoeba‐based palaeohydrological reconstruction from the Swiss Alps, and the first depth to the water table (DWT) calibration dataset for this region. Compared to existing models, our new calibration dataset performs well (RMSEP = 4.88), despite the length of the water table gradient covered (53 cm). The present‐day topography and vegetation of the study mire Mauntschas suggest that it is partly ombrotrophic (large Sphagnum fuscum hummocks, one of which was the coring site) but mostly under the minerotrophic influence of springs in the mire and runoff from the surrounding area. Ombrotrophic Sphagnum fuscum hummocks developed at the sampling site only during the last 50 years, when testate amoebae indicate a shift towards dry and/or acid conditions. Prior to AD 1950 the water table was much higher, suggesting that the influence of the mineral‐rich water prevented the development of ombrotrophic hummocks. The reconstructed DWT correlated with Pinus cembra pollen accumulation rates, suggesting that testate amoebae living on the mire and P. cembra growing outside of it partly respond to the same factor(s). Finally, temperature trends from the nearby meteorological station paralleled trends in reconstructed DWT. However, contrary to other studies made on raised bogs of northwestern Europe, the highest correlation was observed for winter temperature, despite the fact that testate amoebae would more logically respond to moisture conditions during the growing season. The observed correlation with winter temperature might reflect a control of winter severity on surface moisture during at least the first part of the growing season, through snow melt and soil frost phenomena influencing run‐off. More ecohydrological work on sub‐alpine mires is needed to understand the relationships between climate, testate amoebae and peatland development. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Convective cores in galactic cooling flows     

Alexei Kritsuk  Tomasz Plewa  Ewald Müller 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,326(1):11-22

We use hydrodynamic simulations with adaptive grid refinement to study the dependence of hot gas flows in X-ray luminous giant elliptical galaxies on the efficiency of heat supply to the gas. We consider a number of potential heating mechanisms including Type Ia supernovae and sporadic nuclear activity of a central supermassive black hole. As a starting point for this research we use an equilibrium hydrostatic recycling model. We show that a compact cooling inflow develops, if the heating is slightly insufficient to counterbalance radiative cooling of the hot gas in the central few kiloparsecs. An excessive heating in the centre, instead, drives a convectively unstable outflow. We model the onset of the instability and a quasi-steady convective regime in the core of the galaxy in two dimensions assuming axial symmetry.
Provided the power of net energy supply in the core is not too high, the convection remains subsonic. The convective pattern is dominated by buoyancy driven large-scale mushroom-like structures. Unlike in the case of a cooling inflow, the X-ray surface brightness of an (on average) isentropic convective core does not display a sharp maximum at the centre. A hybrid model, which combines a subsonic peripheral cooling inflow with an inner convective core, appears to be stable. We also discuss observational implications of these results.  相似文献   

A study of the sea level and current effects on the sea state in Galway Bay,using the numerical model COAWST     

Calvino  Cl&#;ment  Dabrowski  Tomasz  Dias  Fr&#;d&#;ric 《Ocean Dynamics》2022,72(11):761-774

A coupled wave and ocean model is applied to the region of Galway Bay in the west of Ireland, using the numerical modelling suite COAWST. The coupled model was validated in a previous study. Here we focus on the impact of the currents and sea level on the sea state during Storm Hector (2018/06/14). The purpose of the research is to improve the wave dynamics knowledge specifically in Galway Bay by highlighting and quantifying the dominant current-induced mechanisms on the sea state observed numerically. We want to know where wave-current interaction is modifying the sea state in the bay, and if the change is significant to justify the use of a coupled model for an operational application. We show that the impacts of the tidal sea surface height on bottom friction and of the current-induced refraction on the spatial distribution of the waves are the dominant mechanisms. Those two effects are well-documented and observed in the literature already. A strong feedback impact of the coupling is also put into evidence. The wave-induced response in terms of currents leads to a noticeable variation in terms of wave height. Less documented in the literature, we discuss the link between current-induced refraction and the reduction of wave generation by wind.

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A new discovery of parautochthonous moldavites in southwestern Poland,Central Europe          下载免费PDF全文

Tomasz Brachaniec  Krzysztof Szopa  Łukasz Karwowski 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2015,50(10):1697-1702

Moldavites represent tektites derived from the Ries impact structure (~24 km diameter, ~15 Myr old) in southern Germany. Two new localities with parautochthonous moldavites in southwestern Poland were found. In these localities, fluvial sediments of the so‐called Gozdnicka formation host the moldavites. Characteristic tektite features, especially bubbles and inclusions of lechatelierite, are reported. The moldavites' size distribution and their abraded shapes indicate that they were redeposited from the nearby Lusatia substrewn field.  相似文献   

Discovery of the most distal Ries tektites found in Lower Silesia,southwestern Poland     

Tomasz Brachaniec  Krzysztof Szopa  Łukasz Karwowski 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(8):1315-1322

We report the first occurrence of moldavites in Poland. This discovery confirms the hypothesis that moldavites could have been distributed up to 500 km from the Ries crater in Germany. The tektites were reworked from Middle Miocene sediments and redeposited in Late Miocene (Pannonian) fluvial deposits of the Gozdnicka Formation in Lower Silesia. The Polish moldavites are represented by nine (<8 mm) fragments with a total of 0.471 g. The lack of the autochthonous tektites indicates that tektites investigated here had to be redeposited in a fluvial environment, probably from the Lusatian area. The chemical composition of the Polish moldavites plots in the same area with those from other localities.  相似文献